ComRes show UKIP 13 points ahead in Rochester

ComRes have a new poll of Rochester and Strood out tonight that shows UKIP with a solid lead. As far as I can recall it's the first ComRes by-election poll this Parliament. Like all constituency polls it was done by telephone, and with a healthy sample size by constituency polling standards of 1500.

Topline figures are CON 30%, LAB 21%, LDEM 3%, UKIP 43%, GREEN 3%. The only previous Rochester & Strood poll was by Survation at the start of the month - that showed a nine point lead for UKIP. Obviously one has to be careful about direct comparisons between polls from different pollsters using different methodologies, so it would be wrong to draw too many conclusions about how opinion might have moved between the two polls (differences could be down to methods), but it certainly doesn't show any obvious sign of the Conservatives eating into UKIP's early lead.