ComRes show Tory lead back to 11

For the past two or three weeks all the polls have been moving in the same direction, with Labour closing the gap on the Conservatives. Tomorrow's ComRes poll in the Independent on Sunday however shows movement in the other direction. The topline figures, with changes from their poll at the start of the month, are CON 40%(+2), LAB 29%(-2), LDEM 21%(+2).

Whenever a poll shows movement against the general trend I urge some degree of caution - of course it could mark the end of the recent narrowing in the polls, or it could just be sample error. Until other polls support or conflict with this movement we won't know, nevertheless, it'll boost Conservative spirits.

UPDATE: The poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, so while it was after the Brown interview was conducted and first reported, it was before clips of it started turning up in the media so I doubt it's really had chance to have any affect. Anyone waiting to see if there is a Brown interview effect probably needs to wait for polls taken after the interview is shown tomorrow.

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