ComRes show Labour holding onto their conference support

I'm expecting at least two new polls tonight. First up is ComRes for the Independent on Sunday. The topline figures, with changes from their last poll, are CON 40%(nc), LAB 28%(nc), LDEM 19%(nc) - so literally no change there.

Polls at the end of last week showed a boost from the Conservative conference, but it's no great surprise that this doesn't: almost by definition the conference boosts are transitory things that disappear after a few days. More interesting though is that the previous ComRes poll was showing a Labour boost, and that hasn't receded. Before the Labour conference ComRes had been pretty consistently showing Labour at around 23% or 24% - now we have them up at 28% (mainly at the expense of others, the Conservatives are pretty steady).

Of course, it's possible to offer a thousand reasons why that might be, and there is scant evidence to actually tell us the real reason. We can't even be certain that it's anything to do with the conference season, since we also have the issue of expenses rising up the agenda. My own guess is that is indeed one factor - Brown's response to the re-emerge of the expenses scandal, firmly stating that complaining MPs should do what their Legg letters say has made him look something like the old decisive, strong (and popular!) Gordon Brown. That said ComRes did ask in the survey whether people agreed with the statement "David Cameron has dealt with the issue of MPs’ expenses better than Gordon Brown" and while the proportion of people agreeing with the statement had fallen, it wasn't a huge turnaround (in May it was 59%, now 53%)

On the subject of expenses, it's also worth commenting on the dog that didn't bark. This is the first poll conducted entirely since the expenses issues re-emerged and the level of support for "others" has not increased.