Boris's lead grows to 13 points

Politicshome, which officially launches today, has up as Breaking news that the lastest poll (presumably YouGov for the Evening Standard) has Boris Johnson leading Ken Livingstone by 13 points. I'll post properly once I've seen the poll.

UPDATE: The new YouGov poll for the Evening Standard has topline figures - with changes from last week's poll - of JOHNSON 49%(+2), Livingstone 36%(-1), Paddick 10%(nc). Boris Johnson remains slightly shy of an overall majority, so taking into account second preference votes the figures become Johnson 56%, Livingstone 44% - so it appears this time the second preferences are breaking slightly in favour of Livingstone.

Following the fuss last week there is a slight difference in YouGov's methodology to take into account ethnicity. YouGov are now weighting to 26% non-white Londoners. This is somewhat lower than the 29% ICM are aiming for. YouGov's figures are based on the proportion of ethnic minorities over the age of 18 in the 2001 census. 29% is the proportion of ethnic minorities in London as a whole, since the non-white population is disproportionately young. I think it is also - by co-incidence - the GLA's 2008 projection of the proportion of ethnic minorities of economically active age, which I guess is where ICM's figure came from. Whoever is right, the slight difference between YouGov and ICM's proportions of ethnic minorities is not going to make a hugely significant difference, perhaps a percentage point or two.

On the subject of the London elections, there's a fun tool here that matches candidates to your policy preferences.

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Britain’s unwritten constitution assumes the incumbent Prime Minister gets the first chance to form a government. But what happens if that Prime Minister has been personally ejected by voters in their constituency?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

According to a survey of 4,560 children aged 13 - 16, across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland conducted by Survation for the BBC, teenagers think 'to feel good about what you do' was the most important thing about any future job. 'happiness' was second,

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Our latest default model projection based on current national polling shows that if a general election was held today, Reform would be the biggest party on 226 seats, 100 seats short of a majority. To put Nigel Farage in Downing Street they would require a coalition with the Conservatives -

Local Elections Expectations Management

Writing in the New Statesman Ben Walker speculates that Labour could lose nearly 2,000 seats out of some 2,500 they are defending. This seems catastrophic for Labour and would see the Greens gain almost a 1,000 councillors with Reform expected to take another 1,000 from Labour

Read more

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Local Elections Expectations Management