Boris ahead with 10 days to go

YouGov's weekly Mayoral election tracker for the Evening Standard has topline voting intentions of JOHNSON 44%(-1), LIVINGSTONE 37%(-2), PADDICK 12%(nc). Once second preferences are reallocated the result is JOHNSON 53%, LIVINGSTONE 47%.

Johnson's lead has fallen from the heights it reached earlier in the campaign (my guess was that this was becase of Boris's less than impressive performances in the televised debates, though it could be because the earlier large leads were when the Lee Jasper affair was prominent in the London media). However, this poll is pretty consistent with YouGov's figures from last week (and indeed with MORI's figures from last week) suggesting the position has stabilised. There are now only 10 days to go until the mayoral election, so while this race has moved about a bit over the last few weeks, there isn't much time for Livingstone to turn round a 6 point deficit and Boris looks set to win.

All this depends, of course, on YouGov's polls being right. They have been the most regular pollster during the London mayoral campaign, but other companies have tended to show a tighter race. In their most recent poll Ipsos MORI, the only other company to have produced more than one mayoral poll in this election, also showed Johnson with a 6% lead in the first round, but showed a narrower contest as second preferences split overwhelmingly in Livingstone's favour.

Low turnout elections do tend to be tricker for pollsters to predict correctly (though YouGov did manage it in 2004), but judging by the polls Boris does seem to have a significant lead as the candidates turn the corner into the final straight.