Biggest Tory lead for 20 years

YouGov's monthly poll for the Sunday Times, one of the the first voting intention polls since the budget, has quite startling topline figures: CON 43%(+3), LAB 27%(-6), LDEM 16%(nc). The poll was conducted between the 13th and 14th of March, so after respondents would have seen the newspaper reaction to the budget.

The 16% Conservative lead is the largest YouGov have ever recorded and the largest any company has produced since October 1987. There are people old enough to vote who weren't born the last time the Tories were this far ahead. If repeated at a general election it would produce a Conservative landslide majority of 122.

It's tempting to automatically assume that such a massive shift this must be a rogue poll. My guess is that it will indeed prove to be an outlier - the shift is just too large- but a second poll, this time from ICM in the News of the World, confirms a significant shift towards the Tories since the budget. ICM's topline figures, with changes from their last poll, are CON 40%(+3), LAB 31%(-3), LDEM 20%(-1). The ICM poll was conducted between the 12th and 13th of March.

More later when details of the polls are available.

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