Are young people becoming more Tory?

According to Opinionpanel's regular surveys of opinion amongst students, the Conservatives are now by far the most popular party amongst students. The latest figures from their May 2008 poll had party support at CON 45%, LDEM 31%, LAB 24% (the headline figures they produce are repercentaged to include only the big 3 parties for some reason). There is a detailed study of their results since 2004 by Paul Whiteley here.

Looking at the graphs in Whiteley's paper, changes in party support amongst students are pretty much the same as changes in party support amongst the public as a whole - the main difference is just that students are far more likely to support the Liberal Democrats. However, if you look at the graph on page 9 of Whiteley's paper, the gap between the proportion of students supporting the Conservatives and the proportion of the population as a whole who vote Conservative does look narrower now that it did a few years ago.

Actually looking at mainstream polls younger people do seem to be shifting over to the Conservatives. I first noticed this during the London mayoral elections. In the past people have always tended to get more Conservative as they get older - the least Conservative were the under 35s, the most Conservative the over 55s. YouGov's London polls didn't fit this pattern - they were giving Boris Johnson a lead amongst over 55s, putting Ken ahead amongst people in middle age, but putting Boris back ahead amongst under 35s.

At the time I put it down to Boris having a particular appeal to young people through things like Have I Got News For You, but looking at YouGov's national polls it does appear to be a pattern. The graph below shows the share of Conservative support in YouGov polls since 2005 for each age group. For most of the time it shows the usual pattern, over 55s are most Tory, following by 35-55s, with under 35s the least Conservative. Looking at the last month or two though, under 35s have suddenly become more Tory than 35-55s - it looks as though it is now middle aged people - those who would have come of age during the Thatcher years - who are least Tory.

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