We also have a new Angus Reid poll out today, with broadly similar figures to MORI (well, they are more similar to MORI than they are YouGov and ICM). Topline figures with changes from the start of the month are CON 33%(-2), LAB 41%(+1), LDEM 12%(nc). A movement towards Labour, but all well within the margin of error.
I'm not certain what the dates on this are - whether it was all after the GDP announcement, straddled it, or was all before it.
Britain’s unwritten constitution assumes the incumbent Prime Minister gets the first chance to form a government. But what happens if that Prime Minister has been personally ejected by voters in their constituency?
According to a survey of 4,560 children aged 13 - 16, across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland conducted by Survation for the BBC, teenagers think 'to feel good about what you do' was the most important thing about any future job. 'happiness' was second,
Our latest default model projection based on current national polling shows that if a general election was held today, Reform would be the biggest party on 226 seats, 100 seats short of a majority. To put Nigel Farage in Downing Street they would require a coalition with the Conservatives -
Writing in the New Statesman Ben Walker speculates that Labour could lose nearly 2,000 seats out of some 2,500 they are defending. This seems catastrophic for Labour and would see the Greens gain almost a 1,000 councillors with Reform expected to take another 1,000 from Labour
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