After much speculation, MORI show a 17 point Tory lead

After an amusing mountain of speculation, including vast amounts of twittering about the Conservative lead being down to 3 points according to "reliable sources", Ipsos MORI's monthly poll has finally turned up in the Observer. The topline figures are CON 43%(+6), LAB 26%(-5), LDEM 20%(+2).

The shift from MORI's previous poll, which showed a Tory lead of only 6 points, is extreme. However, that poll was largely the result of a sample that had an unusually high proportion of 2005 Labour voters, so I expect this is largely a reversion to a more normal sample. I'll have a proper dig around when the full tables turn up.

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Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Local Elections Expectations Management