69% think it's time for a change

The second new poll of the day is ICM's monthly tracker for the Guardian. This is has topline figures, with changes from their last poll, of CON 42%(nc), LAB 30%(nc), LDEM 20%(+2).

Clearly, as with the YouGov poll at the weekend, there is very little change indeed here. If one assumes this mornings MORI poll is something of a return to normalcy after some outlying figures, we really do have a very static and very uniform picture across the pollsters, with the Tories in the low 40s and Labour at or just above 30. The variation, as usual, is in the level of Lib Dem support, which differs for various reasons (not least, 13% of ICM's sample was made up of people who claim they voted Lib Dem in 2005, while only 9.3% of MORI's was - there are 40% more Lib Dems in the sample to begin with).

Putting the voting intention question aside though, there is a possibly more important finding - ICM's semi-regular "time for change" question. As I've said here before, that's a powerful message, the sort of narrative that sweeps governments from office (ICM's Nick Sparrow once wrote that there were only really four really powerful messages in politics and all election campaigns boiled down to them - "Let us finish the job", "Their policies won't work", "Don't let them ruin it" and "Time for a change").

Back in September 2006 70% of people thought it was time for a change. After the handover to Gordon Brown ICM asked the same question in August 2007 and found 55% thought it was time for a change, still high, but a significant drop: clearly some people's desire for change had been met. In November 2008 the question was asked again during the "second Brown bounce" and 58% thought it was time for a change. Today the figure stands at 69% - pretty much back where it was before Tony Blair's resignation.