YouGov/Sunday Times - CON 34, LAB 33, LD 10, UKIP 13, GRN 4
The weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times is here, with topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 33%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 13%, GRN 4%. As with the Opinium and Survation polls, there is no obvious sign of any change in the Labour -v- Conservative lead, though it's first time YouGov have shown the Lib Dems getting into double figures since last Summer. As ever, only one poll, so don't write up the Lib Dem resurrection yet, just keep an eye on it.
Unlike the Survation and Opinium polls there is only modest change in leadership ratings in the YouGov poll. David Cameron's net doing well/badly figure is on plus 1 (up 3), Miliband's minus 26 (up 3), Clegg's minus 33 (up 7). David Cameron's twelve point lead as best Prime Minister is unchanged from a week ago. Miliband retains a small lead on honesty and being genuine, Farage overtakes Miliband on being seen as in touch with ordinary people.
On immigration and HIV - perhaps the one specific issue from the debate that stood out - 50% of people would support the idea of banning immigrants to Britain from NHS treatment, 34% of people are opposed. Asked specifically about Nigel Farage's comments on HIV, 37% said he was scaremongering, 52% said it was a serious issue he was right to raise.
The other thing I flagged up as a possible impact from the debates was whether Nicola Sturgeon's positive reception might blunt Tory attacks on the threat of an SNP/Labour deal. To some extent they have, though overall SNP influence is still seen negatively. Last month 63% of people thought it would be a bad thing if the SNP held the balance of power in a hung Parliament, that's now dropped to 58%. In March 64% thought it would be a bad thing if the SNP were part of a coalition government, that's now dropped to 56%.
In the Sunday Times there was also a new Scottish poll from Panelbase. Their topline figures with changes from their last Scottish poll in January were CON 14%(nc), LAB 29%(-2), LDEM 4%(+1), SNP 45%(+4), UKIP 4%(-3). The poll shows the SNP lead growing, though the last Panelbase showed a strangely small lead - possibly due to unusual question order (there was a question about falling oil prices before voting intention) - so this probably more a case of Panelbase coming into line with the sort of big SNP lead other companies have already been showing. Tabs are here.
The Mail on Sunday also reported a poll of Thanet South, commission by UKIP donor Aaron Banks and apparently leaked to the paper. More on that later on...
UPDATE: Slight error in the YouGov tables for Nick Clegg's scores from last week. His ratings are, in fact, up 7.
