YouGov/Sun - CON 37, LAB 40, LDEM 9

Meanwhile the Sun politics team have tweeted their YouGov poll for tonight, which has topline figures of CON 37%, LAB 40%, LDEM 9%. This poll was conducted on Sunday and Monday, and in contrast to the Populus poll in the Times shows no meaningful change since the Fox resignation at all.

While we are here, I should note some minor tweaks to the YouGov methodology. First, on party ID YouGov are now weighting SNP & Plaid separately from the other "others". The actual targets that party ID is weighted to are all unchanged, but weighting the SNP in with the others was producing too few SNP identifiers in the Scottish sub-sample. Secondly, the weighting targets for newspapers have been updated, to better reflect current National Readership Survey figures. The combined effect of these two changes on the voting intention figures is to marginally reduce Labour support - on the old weights these figures would have been CON 37%, LAB 41%, LDEM 9%. This is pretty typical - on average the new weights have Labour 0.8 of a percentage point lower.

UPDATE: Many thanks to FrankG in the comments below, who has spotted an error in my Scottish notional figures. I've corrected the error and uploaded fresh figures. The corrected figures now have the new Galloway & Carrick as a notionally Conservative seat, rather than a Labour seat. Hence the overall projected change for Scotland becomes Conservatives unchanged, Labour down 4, Lib Dems down 3 and SNP unchanged.

Notional results for Provisional English & Scottish Boundaries (excel) (csv)

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