YouGov/Sun - CON 31, LAB 45, LD 9, UKIP 8
Tonight's YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 45%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 8%, so back to a fourteen point Labour lead.
The big temptation in looking at polls is to see patterns that aren't really there, to twist purely random movement into patterns and trends and then seek to explain something that isn't actually there. So one way of looking at the last couple of weeks with YouGov is that Labour had a boost from the local elections that produced a couple of 14 point leads, which fell back last week as the local election effect faded and this week has grown again as the government get into another tricky patch of U-turns and omnishambles.
The alternative explanation is that random chance produced a couple of polls on the high side one week and a couple of polls on the low side another week, and actually the underlying Labour lead has been at around about 12 points for the whole time. The first explanation is more attractive - our minds like to seek out narratives and patterns in data - that doesn't make it more likely to be true.
