YouGov/Sun - 39/44/8

Tonight's YouGov/Sun voting intention poll has topline figures of CON 39%, LAB 44%, LDEM 8%, Other 9%. The Labour lead of around about 5 points seems to be holding steady. For the record this is the highest level of support YouGov have shown since the general election, though I think it's just random sample variance producing a rather lower figure for "others" than we've seen over the last week or so.

On that subject, I should really have noted that as well as the increase in the Labour lead in YouGov's recent polling, there has also been an increase in support for the minor parties. Between the election and November YouGov consistently had them at below 10% in the polls, between November and December they were at 9%-10%, this last week they've crept up to 11%. I'm always cautious at looking too hard at the splits between minor parties, after all, we are talking about very small numbers of people and fractions of percentages points, but UKIP have had a couple of 5 percents in the YouGov daily polls this week, so they are behind at least some of the increase in the "other" vote.

UPDATE: Just to be clear because I've seen this misconstrued, UKIP have been at 5% twice in the last week or so... but those were days when the others were up at 11% or so. They obviously aren't at 5% in today's poll with the total others at only 9%, they are at 3%. However, the day to day movement of the minor parties is quite erratic, so don't read anything into that.