YouGov shows Ken edging ahead

There is a new YouGov poll of London out today, the first for over six months. Last June YouGov had Boris Johnson ahead, the latest figures have Ken Livingstone overtaking him to secure a very narrow lead - topline figures for the first round are Boris 44%(-4), Ken 46%(+5), Brian Paddick 7%(+5), Others 3%. Asked to choose just between the top two candidates, Ken leads by a whisker - 51%(+5) to Boris's 49%(-5).

Note that this is the first YouGov London polling since Brian Paddick was confirmed as the Lib Dem candidate, so the boost for Paddick will at least partially be that fact that there is now a named Lib Dem candidate in the question, rather than "the Liberal Democrat Candidate".

YouGov also asked about Westminster voting intention, and there was no such swing towards Labour here - in fact, Labour's lead has dropped since last June. Current Westminster voting intentions in London are CON 34%(+2), LAB 49%(-2), LDEM 8%(nc), Others 9%. This reflects a 6.5 swing from Con to Lab since the general election, larger than polls are currently showing in the country as a whole.

The contrast of a shift from Boris to Ken in mayoral voting intention, but Lab to Con in Westminster voting intentions appears to be because the proportion of "Labour for Boris" voters is falling: last June 23% of Labour voters who expressed a preference opted for Boris over Ken, in the latest figures that has fallen to 12%.

That said, Boris is still polling significantly above his party. In Westminster voting intentions Labour have a very solid lead in London. In mayoral voting intentions it remains neck and neck.

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