YouGov/QMUL poll of London

Phil Cowley at Queen Mary University London has released a new YouGov poll ahead of the London local elections next month. Local election voting intentions are CON 29%(+1), LAB 51%(-3), LDEM 11%(nc), changes are from the previous poll in mid-February.

If these figures were to be repeated at the locals then Labour would pull off a crushing victory... but not quite as crushing as some had previously speculated. Back in February the poll had suggested a swing of over 13 points in inner London, bringing Tory bastions like Westminster and Wandsworth into play. The inner London swing in this poll is more modest, at just under 7 points. If that was repeated Westminster would remain safetly Conservative, though Wandsworth would still be relatively close.

That's not to say that it wouldn't be a good performance in London for Labour, merely that it may not now deliver many council gains or headlines. Labour already made substantial gains in 2014. Barnet is the only "easy" pick-up for them next month, after that the Tories are down to their safest Boroughs that would take some substantial swings for Labour to gain. It will be interesting to see how the spin battle to portray the outcome as a success or victory for Labour & the Conservatives pans out.

Full tabs for the poll are here.