YouGov on how people would vote with Cable

Today's YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 44%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 7% - so the 6 point Labour lead in the Sunday Times certainly looks as though it was an outlier.

As I mentioned yesterday, YouGov also asked a hypothetical "how would you vote if Vince Cable was Lib Dem leader" question. YouGov's control question naming the current leaders had figures of CON 33%, LAB 43%, LDEM 8%. Asked how they would vote if Cable became Lib Dem leader the figures switch to CON 33%, LAB 39%, LDEM 11%.

Both ComRes and YouGov show the Lib Dems doing better with Cable, and by roughly similar amounts (3 or 4 percentage points). The difference is that ComRes found it coming equally from the Conservatives and Labour, YouGov find it effectively coming straight across from Labour.

Still, while the speculation is fun, all the usual caveats about these sort of hypothetical questions apply. While Cable is quite well known and people can give some sort of educated opinion, they will be making complete guesses about what sort of leader he would be, what policies he would pursue, what the narrative would be around the appointment and so on. Most of the time hypothetical leader polls are probably more important for the impact they make on the Westminster village than what they actually tell us about how leaders would perform.

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Britain’s unwritten constitution assumes the incumbent Prime Minister gets the first chance to form a government. But what happens if that Prime Minister has been personally ejected by voters in their constituency?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

According to a survey of 4,560 children aged 13 - 16, across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland conducted by Survation for the BBC, teenagers think 'to feel good about what you do' was the most important thing about any future job. 'happiness' was second,

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Our latest default model projection based on current national polling shows that if a general election was held today, Reform would be the biggest party on 226 seats, 100 seats short of a majority. To put Nigel Farage in Downing Street they would require a coalition with the Conservatives -

Local Elections Expectations Management

Writing in the New Statesman Ben Walker speculates that Labour could lose nearly 2,000 seats out of some 2,500 they are defending. This seems catastrophic for Labour and would see the Greens gain almost a 1,000 councillors with Reform expected to take another 1,000 from Labour

Read more

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Local Elections Expectations Management