Tale of Two Types of Quitters: Young Tory MPs and Older Tory MPs

Over the past few days there have been a flurry of Conservative MPs announcing their intention to stand down ahead of the next election. The Spectator's count has the current total of MPs standing down at 24, evenly split between Labour and the Conservatives. Though as James Heale pointed out on Twitter, that's not the end of the story. The average age of Labour MPs standing down is 70; for Conservatives it's just under 49.

This trend becomes even more apparent when visualising the context of the Tory MPs standing down. By plotting the age and majority of each, a positive correlation emerges. That is to the older a standing down MP is, the higher the chance they could have held their seat if they so wanted.

There are also two distinct clusters within the group: those over 50, all sitting on more comfortable majorities, and those under 45 in perilous positions. The one MP caught in the middle is 45 year-old Andrew Percy.

On our current forecasts all of those MPs in the younger group are set to lose their seats.

This is not to say that the fear of electoral embarrassment is the only reason behind the decisions. Though it does say something the Conservatives' own estimations of their electoral prospects when many young "rising stars" feel their political careers are over.

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Survation's Makerfield Poll Has Labour's Burnham Leading

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What Would Happen If the Prime Minister Lost Their Seat?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job