Voting Intention Update

Time for an update on this week's voting intention polls. Here are YouGov's figures this week:

YouGov/Sun August 2nd: CON 42% LAB 38% LDEM 12% YouGov/Sun August 3rd: CON 41% LAB 36% LDEM 13% YouGov/Sun August 4th: CON 42% LAB 36% LDEM 13%

YouGov/Sun August 5th: CON 44% LAB 36% LDEM 13%

The Lib Dem drop to 12% last weekend was slightly more meaningful than I thought at the time. I said then that it was part of a downwards trend, but that we'd probably see the Lib Dems back up at their average of 14% or so in the next poll. In fact, the Lib Dems this week seem to be down to around 13%.

The Conservatives and Labour meanwhile remain steady in the low 40s and mid 30s respectively. Last night's poll had a Conservative lead of 8 points, the largest for a couple of weeks, but more generally I think we are just seeing random variation around a Tory lead of about 6 points or so.