Voting Intention & support for an English Parliament
Two polls in the Sunday papers. Firstly the Mail on Sunday carries a new BPIX poll showing a Conservative lead of 10 points. BPIX don't seem to have carried out a poll since all the way back in April, the topline figures with changes from then are CON 41%(+6), LAB 31%(-1), LDEM 15%(-4).
Without any other recent BPIX polls it is impossible to guess at any current trend. The poll is in very obvious contrast to ICM's last week which showed the Tory lead falling to only 1 point. BPIX's methodology has not been made public, so it is impossible to say how their weighting or turnout filtering might affect their topline figures, althought in the past they have tended to produce figures in line with most of the other pollsters.
The 15% score for the Liberal Democrats is below the figure BPIX recorded during the Lib Dems' January crisis. Personally this seems rather unlikely, but ICM's poll last week also recorded their lowest Lib Dem score since the election. Perhaps Populus's poll (due on Tuesday) will shed some light on the matter.
Asked who would make the best Prime Minister, David Cameron led Gordon Brown by 40% to 35%.
Meanwhile a MORI poll in the Observer, commissioned by the English Constitutional Convention recorded a rise in support for an English Parliament, up to 26%. Previous MORI polls asking the same question have recoed support at under 20%. This is in contrast to a recent YouGov poll that showed a slight dip in support.
