Sunday polls

I think there will be three polls tonight - Ipsos MORI, ICM (probably) and YouGov. Ipsos MORI's poll in the News of the World had a sample of only 800, so presumably won't have any voting intention figures. It finds 28% in support of the coalition's tuition fee policy and "almost two thirds" opposed.

The Press Association coverage concentrates on one of those awful "does X make you less likely to vote for party Y" questions. You all know how lowly I rate such questions - people tend to use them to indicate support or approval for a policy regardless of how lightly it weighs upon their vote.

In this case it's particularly difficult to tell if it's meaningful, the PA says the poll shows 46% of "previous" Lib Dems voters are less likely to vote Liberal Democrats as a result of their stance on tuition fees. Now until we see the tables we can't tell exactly what that means, but presumably it's that 46% of people who voted Liberal Democrat in 2010 are less likely to vote Liberal Democrat because of fees. If that's the case, then given most polls show getting on for half of 2010 Lib Dem voters wouldn't vote Liberal Democrat tomorrow anyway, it's hardly a surprise. "People who no longer vote Liberal Democrat less likely to vote Liberal Democrat shocker!!!"

UPDATE: Much more interesting should be this big of chunk of polling on the Liberal Democrats, commissioned by Lord Ashcroft. I haven't had chance to look through it yet, but it looks promising.

UPDATE2: The Lord Ashcroft polling is in the Sunday Telegraph tomorrow, so clearly no ICM after all.