Snap Populus poll on Ming Campbell

Populus are first out of the gates on Ming Campbell - today's Politics Show had a Populus poll conducted immediately after the announcement of the leadership election yesterday afternoon in the Liberal Democrat's top 20 target seats (or at least, the ten most marginal Labour held seats and ten most marginal Conservative held seats with Lib Dems in second place). Snap polls like this aren't as reliable as full polls - there isn't the opportunity to ring back people who are out, leading to non-contact bias - but they can give us a good rough guide to what people think in the Liberal Democrats' target seats.

Over 75% of people said they were either not interested or only slightly interested in the Lib dem leadership election, which perhaps suggests that the Lib Dems will not benefit from any huge post-leadership election bounce (though we'll know for sure in a couple of days).

Asked if they saw Menzies Campbell as a potential Prime Minister 19% of people said yes, compared to 60% who could see Gordon Brown as a potential PM and 49% who could see David Cameron as a potential leader, although this question may well simply reflect the chances of the respective politicians' political parties winning a Commons majority, rather than reflecting on Ming Campbell's personal stature as a politician.

19% of people said that Ming Campbell's leadership made them more likely to vote Liberal Democrat (although there is no indiction of how many of these people would vote Lib Dem anyway), this compared to 28% of people who said Gordon Brown becoming Labour leader would make them more likely to vote Labour (though no indication how many vote Labour anyway), and 30% who said David Cameron's leadership had made them more likely to vote Conservative (ditto).