Populus suggest the NO vote is firmer than YES

Looking again at Populus's AV polling earlier this month I spotted something interesting. As you'll recall, Populus asked two questions - one a bare question which found YES on 33% and NO on 37%. The second briefly describing AV in the question which gives NO a higher lead, as we've seen in other polling. Here Populus found 46% saying they'd vote NO, 29% YES.

However, until I looked at the tables I hadn't spotted something more interesting about Populus's second question: they gave people a four point answer scale, asking people both how they'd vote, and how certain they were, and the NO vote appears to be much firmer.

Amongst the 46% who said they'd vote NO, 31% said they would definitely vote NO, 15% would likely vote No but haven't completely made up their mind. Amongst the 29% who said they'd vote YES, only 11% said they'd definitely vote YES, 18% that they hadn't completely made up their mind.

This could well also be a pointer towards which side will be more motivated to turn out, though my own expectation is that outside London and the other areas with no other elections, turnout will be more driven by the people who are turning out to vote in the other elections that day.