Populus April Poll

Populus's April poll has headline figures of CON 37%(-1), LAB 29%(-1), LDEM 20%(+2), a Conservative lead of 8 points. There is no significant movement from last month, though for those who record such things, this is Labour's lowest score in a Populus poll to date. The figures do suggest that the Conservatives are now consolidating a lead of around 8 points, with them recording

similar leads in all the most recent YouGov and Populus polls, and larger leads in ICM polls.

Looking toward the elections next month Populus's poll in April 2003, when most of the council, Parliament and Assembly seats that are up next month were last elected, stood at CON 34%, LAB 36%, LDEM 22% - putting into context the sort of slump there has been in Labour support since these seats were last up for grabs. Asked this month about the local elections, only 14% of people said they would be voting on local factors - 16% said they would use their vote in May to pass their verdict on Gordon Brown, 24% to pass a verdict on Tony Blair and 39% to pass a verdict on the government.

Populus's fieldwork was conducted between the 13th and 15th April.

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Britain’s unwritten constitution assumes the incumbent Prime Minister gets the first chance to form a government. But what happens if that Prime Minister has been personally ejected by voters in their constituency?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

According to a survey of 4,560 children aged 13 - 16, across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland conducted by Survation for the BBC, teenagers think 'to feel good about what you do' was the most important thing about any future job. 'happiness' was second,

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Our latest default model projection based on current national polling shows that if a general election was held today, Reform would be the biggest party on 226 seats, 100 seats short of a majority. To put Nigel Farage in Downing Street they would require a coalition with the Conservatives -

Local Elections Expectations Management

Writing in the New Statesman Ben Walker speculates that Labour could lose nearly 2,000 seats out of some 2,500 they are defending. This seems catastrophic for Labour and would see the Greens gain almost a 1,000 councillors with Reform expected to take another 1,000 from Labour

Read more

What would happen if the Prime Minister lost their seat?

Teens Think Happiness and Wellbeing More Important Than Money from a Job

Latest General Election Projection: Knife Edge Coalitions

Local Elections Expectations Management