Two interesting polls last night. The daily YouGov poll for the Sun had topline voting intentions of CON 34%, LAB 36%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%. That's a couple of lower Labour leads in a row, but as ever, that could easily be margin of error. Worth
We've had a couple of weeks to digest the European elections now, and it looks as if the polls since then have been showing a slightly increased Labour lead. I've done a graph below of the last few months of polls - in order to remove
Lord Ashcroft's weekly poll this afternoon has topline figures of CON 28%(+3), LAB 32%(-2), LDEM 8%(+2), UKIP 17%(-2). The Labour lead is down by five points but this is very probably a reversion to the mean after an unusual looking poll a week ago.
There are two polls in this morning's papers. The fortnightly Opinium poll for the Observer has topline figures of CON 31%(-1), LAB 35%(+2), LDEM 6%(-1), UKIP 19%(nc). Charges are from their pre-European election poll, so show the sort of increase in the Labour lead
Yesterday was the Newark by-election, a relatively comfortable hold for the Conservatives over UKIP in second place. When the by-election was first announced there was an obvious risk for the Tories - it was taking place at a time when UKIP would be basking in the glory of a successful
This morning's YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 30%, LAB 36%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 17%. Seventeen percent for UKIP is the highest YouGov have shown since May 2013, also in the aftermath of a strong performance for UKIP at the ballot box. Looking at
Lord Ashcroft has released two polls this afternoon, his regular weekly GB poll and a poll for the Newark by-election later this week. In Newark he has topline figures of CON 42%(-12), LAB 20%(-2), LDEM 6%(-14), UKIP 27%(+23) - changes are since the general election. Compared
The weekly YouGov results for the Sunday Times are up here; topline voting intentions are CON 33%, LAB 36%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 15%. Nick Clegg always scores badly on leadership ratings anyway, but following last week he's broken his own records. 13% think he is doing well as
Tomorrow's Sun has a Survation poll of Newark, ahead of the by-election next week. Topline figures with changes since the general election are CON 36%(-18), LAB 27%(+5), LD 5%(-15), UKIP 28%(+24). This is the first poll we've had of Newark, and unless
Yesterday we had a selection of ICM polls in Liberal Democrat seats, initially released anonymously but eventually confirmed as having been commissioned by Lord Oakeshott. Oakeshott has now resigned, but left saying that Cable knew about the polls. The political row rolls on, but I'm just going to
I've been laid low with a stomach bug all day so haven't had time to really write about today's polling. For the record though here are the two new polls from Lord Ashcroft and Populus. Lord Ashcroft's poll has topline figures of
Time for a post-mortem of the European election polling. I'm not a fan of the sort of horse-race approach to these things - just because they are the final poll of the race, they still have normal margins of error, so if one pollster is a fraction more
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