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Latest YouGov and TNS polls

Today's daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 33%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 13%, GRN 7%. This is the first Tory lead from YouGov this week - their underlying average has the two main parties very close to each other, so we should

By Anthony Wells 04 Feb 2015
Ashcroft Scottish polling - a primer

Ashcroft Scottish polling - a primer

On average the four Scottish polls so far this year show Labour on 27%, the Lib Dems on 5% and the SNP on 47%. This is the equivalent of a swing of 21 percent from Labour to the SNP and 20.5% the Liberal Democrats to the SNP. On a

By Anthony Wells 03 Feb 2015

YouGov/Times Scottish poll has SNP 21 points ahead

The Times tomorrow has a new YouGov poll of Scotland - full figures aren't up yet (the tables will be on the YouGov website tomorrow as usual), but the Times front page has the topline Westminster voting intentions of LAB 27% (no change since YouGov's last

By Anthony Wells 02 Feb 2015

Latest Ashcroft and Populus polls

Monday's Populus poll has topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5% (tabs here). Populus have made two changes to their methodology for this poll, detailled here. The first is to start including UKIP in the main prompt for their voting intention questions,

By Anthony Wells 02 Feb 2015

Latest Opinium and YouGov polls

Two polls in the Sunday papers - the fortnightly Opinium for the Observer and the weekly YouGov for the Sunday Times. YouGov have topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 35%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 15%, GRN 6%. It's the first Labour lead YouGov have shown for a week. It&

By Anthony Wells 01 Feb 2015

14 weeks to go

Week four of the year we had the regular YouGov, Ashcroft and Populus polls, the first ComRes telephone poll of the year and the first 2015 GB poll from Survation - the first in a regular series for the Daily Mirror. YouGov/S Times (23/1/15) - CON 32%

By Anthony Wells 30 Jan 2015
All about house effects

All about house effects

Polls often give contrasting results. Sometimes this is because they were done at different times and public opinion has actually changed, but most of time that's not the reason. A large part of the difference between polls showing different results is often simple random variation, good old margin

By Anthony Wells 29 Jan 2015

Scottish Voting Intention

Scottish Voting Intention for Westminster Scottish Voting Intentions in Westminster since 2014 Survey End Date CON (%) LAB (%) LD (%) SNP (%) UKIP (%) SNP Lead"; $con = mysql_connect("localhost", "ukpoll_ajwells", "haddock"); mysql_select_db ("ukpoll_pollresults"); $result5 = mysql_query ("SELECT * FROM scotvoteint

By Anthony Wells 27 Jan 2015

YouGov London and Welsh polling

As well as the regular GB poll, YouGov have released new Welsh and London polls this week. The London polling for the Evening Standard is here and has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 42%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 10%, GRN 8%. Despite its Conservative mayor London tends to be more

By Anthony Wells 27 Jan 2015

Monday polling round-up

We have a bumper crop of opinion polls today - as well as the regular twice-weekly Populus poll, weekly Ashcroft poll there is the first of a series of monthly Survation polls for the Mirror. Still to come tonight is the daily YouGov poll and a ComRes telephone phone for

By Anthony Wells 26 Jan 2015

YouGov/Sunday Times - CON 32, LAB 32, LDEM 7, UKIP 15, GRN 7

The weekly YouGov/Sunday Times survey is up here and has topline figures of CON 32%, LAB 32%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7%. Most of the rest of the survey dealt with attitudes towards the Chilcot Inquiry and Iraq. Asked in hindsight whether Britain and the US were right

By Anthony Wells 25 Jan 2015

Fifteen Weeks to go

Week three of the year and the regular cycle of opinion polling is back to full speed, with the first ComRes and ICM polls of the year. Almost all the regular polling companies have now reported figures from 2015 (we're only waiting for Survation and ComRes's

By Anthony Wells 23 Jan 2015
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