14 weeks to go

Anthony Wells

— 3 min read
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Week four of the year we had the regular YouGov, Ashcroft and Populus polls, the first ComRes telephone poll of the year and the first 2015 GB poll from Survation - the first in a regular series for the Daily Mirror.

YouGov/S Times (23/1/15) - CON 32%, LAB 32%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7% Survation/Mirror (25/1/15) - CON 31%, LAB 30%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 23%, GRN 3% Populus (25/1/15) - CON 34%, LAB 35%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6% Ashcroft (25/1/15) - CON 32%, LAB 32%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 15%, GRN 9% ComRes/Indy (25/1/15) - CON 31%, LAB 30%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 17%, GRN 7% YouGov/Sun (26/1/15) - CON 34%, LAB 33%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 15%, GRN 7% YouGov/Sun (27/1/15) - CON 34%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 7% YouGov/Sun (28/1/15) - CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 16%, GRN 7% YouGov/Sun (29/1/15) - CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 14%, GRN 7% Populus (29/1/15) - CON 34%, LAB 35%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 14%, GRN 4%

The polls this week continued to show an extremely tight race - every single poll had the two main parties within one point of each other, and unlike last week there were slightly more polls with the Tories ahead than with Labour ahead. The UKPR average though still has figures of CON 32%(nc), LAB 33%(nc), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 15%(nc), GRN 6%(-1), as Opinium and ICM polls from last week are still contributing towards the average. For anyone interested in the differences between some of the polls from different companies, I explored them in this post earlier this week.

Welsh polls

There were also two Welsh voting intention polls out this week, the regular YouGov/ITV/University of Cardiff poll and an ICM poll for the BBC. Westminster voting intention figures for the two polls were:

ICM/BBC - CON 21%, LAB 38%, LDEM 7%, Plaid 12%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6% YouGov/ITV - CON 23%, LAB 37%, LDEM 6%, Plaid 10%, UKIP 16%, GRN 8%

Week four

  • At the beginning of the week there was a lot of froth about UKIP's NHS policy and the Green party's policies on membership of extremist groups and a citizen's income. It's unlikely that either will make much difference for the simple fact that most people have no idea at all about what their policies are on such issues. For UKIP, the majority of people think they have at least a fairly good idea of what sort of approach they would take on immigration and Europe, but on other subjects people draw a blank. For the Green party 54% think they've got some idea what the Green party would do on the environment, but on everything else at least three quarters know nothing. It doesn't necessarily stop people backing them, as broad perceptions of a party's values, principle and competence are far more important than specific policies anyway. I suspect that maybe even more the case for parties who have no realistic chance of getting a majority and putting said policies into action.
  • As we passed the 100 days to go mark both Labour and the Conservatives put out new policies, Labour on the NHS, the Conservatives on welfare benefits. The Conservatives headline pledge to reduce the benefit cap to £23,000 was supported by 61% to 25% (including amongst Labour voters), even though people didn't think it made people look for work. The idea of stopping housing benefit for young people was more divisive - 42% supported the idea, 40% opposed it.
  • The NHS is generally a rock solid issue for Labour anyway - last week they had a thirteen point lead over the Tories on which party people thought would handle the issue the best. Welfare benefits is actually much more contested ground, in the same poll 28% of people thought Labour would handle the issue the best, 28% of people thought the Conservatives would handle the issue the best.

Projections

The latest forecasts from Election Forecast, May 2015 and Elections Etc are below. All are still predicting a hung Parliament, though Election Forecast and May2015 have the Conservatives catching up with Labour after a week of close polls.

Elections Etc - Hung Parliament, CON 282(-1), LAB 280(+2), LD 24(+1), SNP 40(-1), UKIP 3(nc) Election Forecast - Hung Parliament, CON 283(+5), LAB 285(-1), LD 27(-1), SNP 32(-2), UKIP 2(-1) May 2015 - Hung Parliament, CON 280(+11), LAB 280(-9), LD 24(-3), SNP 38(nc), UKIP 5(+1)

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