Ipsos MORI/Standard - CON 40, LAB 31, LD 7, UKIP 11, GRN 4

Ipsos MORI's monthly political monitor is out today, with topline figures of CON 40%, LAB 31%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 11%, GRN 4%. Full details and tables are here. MORI also asked respondents to choose between the parties on various more specific measures - a bank of questions with

What the Polling Inquiry said

Today the polling inquiry under Pat Sturgis' presented its initial findings on what caused the polling error. Pat himself, Jouni Kuha and Ben Lauderdale all went through their findings at a meeting at the Royal Statistical Society - the full presentation is up here. As we saw in the

Initial findings of the Polling Inquiry

The MRS/BPC Polling Inquiry under Pat Sturgis is due to release it's initial findings at a meeting this afternoon (and a final written report in March). While I expect much more detail this afternoon they've press released the headline findings overnight. As I suggested here,

ICM/Guardian - CON 40, LAB 35, LDEM 6, UKIP 10, GRN 3

The monthly ICM poll for the Guardian is out today and has topline figures of CON 40%, LAB 35%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 10%, GRN 3%. The full details are on ICM's website here and again come with some pretty candid and downbeat commentary from Martin Boon, who writes

This week's Polling Inquiry

On Tuesday the BPC/MRS's inquiry into why the polls went wrong publishes its first findings. Here's what you need to know in advance. The main thing the inquiry is looking at is why the polls were wrong. There are, essentially, three broad categories of problems

Latest Scottish and EU polling

Survation had a new poll of Scottish voting intentions in the Holyrood election this week. As usual in the present Scottish political scene they show a towering SNP lead, with Labour second and the Conservatives in third. Constituency voting intentions are SNP 52%, LAB 21%, CON 16%, LDEM 7%; Regional

Polling on the Junior Doctors Strike

Support or opposition to strike action is often largely influenced by people's attitudes to the people going on strike and the inconvenience it causes them. If it's a profession that people admire and think is generally hard done by they'll sympathise, if it'

YouGov London poll shows Khan ahead

I'm just catching up on the YouGov London poll earlier in the week for LBC - full tabs are here. Last May Labour enjoyed a solid swing in their favour in London and ended up nine points ahead of the Tories, they've largely maintained that support

YouGov end of year poll

Over the New Year the Times had an end of year YouGov poll, conducted in mid-December. The tables went up on the YouGov website today here. Topline figures were CON 39%, LAB 29%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 17%, GRN 3%. The rest of the poll, covering a lot of the trackers

In Defence of Polling

2015 is unlikely to be remembered as a high point in opinion polling. In the months since the election I've spoken at various events and appeared on various panels, and at almost every one at some point there's been a question from the audience along the

ICM/Guardian - CON 39, LAB 34, LD 7, UKIP 10, GRN 3

ICM released their final monthly voting intention poll of 2015 yesterday, with topline figures of CON 39%, LAB 34%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 10%, GRN 3%. I assume it's the last voting intention poll we will see before Christmas. The full tables are here, where ICM also make an

Opinium/Observer - CON 38, LAB 30, LDEM 5, UKIP 16, GRN 5

Opinium have a new poll in today's Observer - topline figures are CON 38%, LAB 30%, LDEM 5%, UKIP 16%, GRN 5%. Tabs are here. The rest of the poll largely concentrated on leadership questions. Cameron's approval rating stands at minus 6, Corbyn at minus 25,