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Labour ahead in Glasgow East

ICM's poll in Glasgow East has voting intentions of CON 7%, LAB 47%, LDEM 9%, SNP 33%. The caveats I mentioned in the post below about the Crewe and Nantwich polls and the trickiness of polling in Glasgow East all apply - but the 14 point Labour lead

By Anthony Wells 12 Jul 2008

Glasgow East poll on its way

Rather to my surprise - I wasn't expecting anyone to risk polling a by-election in area where social problems are going to make getting a good sample a bit tricky - there is due to be an ICM poll of Glasgow East in the Sunday Telegraph. In the

By Anthony Wells 12 Jul 2008

SNP overtake Labour in Westminster support

A new YouGov poll of Scottish opinion for the Telegraph has, for what is apparently (according to the SNP and the Telegraph) the first time, the sNP ahead of Labour in Westminster voting intentions. The topline voting intention figures are CON 20%, LAB 29%, LDEM 14%, SNP 33%. We are

By Anthony Wells 11 Jul 2008

Has David Davis changed people's minds?

Iain Dale, and others who oppose 42 day detention are greeting with great joy a new ICM poll for the Joseph Rowntree Reform Trust that suggests 60% of people think the limit on the length of time terrorist suspects can be held should be less than 42 days. I'

By Anthony Wells 09 Jul 2008

Labour recovery in latest Populus poll

Populus's monthly poll for the Times shows a significant drop in the Conservative lead. The topline figures, with changes from Populus's last poll, are apparently CON 41%(-4), LAB 28%(+3), LDEM 19%(-1). Interestingly YouGov's last poll also showed a recovery for Labour.

By Anthony Wells 07 Jul 2008
Testing likelihood to vote

Testing likelihood to vote

Looking again at MORI's review of their methodology I spotted the rather interesting nugget that "the academic British Election Study (BES) from the 2005 general election [...] has the advantage of having had the turnout of its individual respondents validated against the marked-up electoral register". Indeed it

By Anthony Wells 07 Jul 2008

Tory sleaze?

Yesterday I had a post up on PoliticsHome looking at some of the recent Phi5000 results, specifically Caroline Spelman's ratings. Since the first revelations about her once paying her nanny from public funds came to light her ratings have slumped. There's nothing particularly surprising about that,

By Anthony Wells 07 Jul 2008
Are young people becoming more Tory?

Are young people becoming more Tory?

According to Opinionpanel's regular surveys of opinion amongst students, the Conservatives are now by far the most popular party amongst students. The latest figures from their May 2008 poll had party support at CON 45%, LDEM 31%, LAB 24% (the headline figures they produce are repercentaged to include

By Anthony Wells 05 Jul 2008

Support for ID Cards

The latest in the regular series of ICM polls No2ID have commissioned tracking the public's support for ID cards shows the public continue to be pretty evenly split with 48% thinking ID cards are a good idea, 46% a bad idea. While slightly more people support them than

By Anthony Wells 01 Jul 2008

A third new poll

After new YouGov and Ipsos-MORI polls, we have the third new poll in 24 hours. The latest ComRes poll for the Independent has topline voting intentions of CON 46%(+2), LAB 25%(-1), LDEM 18%(+1). It as conducted between the 25th and 26th of June, and there is clearly

By Anthony Wells 27 Jun 2008

MORI return to the fray with a 17 point Tory lead

MORI's June political monitor has been published and is online here. The topline voting intention figures are CON 45%, LAB 28%, LDEM 16%. It was carried out between the 13th and 15th June. I haven't put a change since the last MORI poll for two reasons

By Anthony Wells 27 Jun 2008

How it went wrong

I have a long post up on PoliticsHome looking at how Labour got into the position of being 20 points behind, based on the daily data produced by their Phi5000 panel. It's very clear that the point when their reputation really crumbled was during the 10p tax row,

By Anthony Wells 27 Jun 2008
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