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BBC report findings from a sub-sample of NINE

Years ago I slated the BBC for commissioning a poll about religion and trying to draw conclusions about people from different religious groups using pathetically small sample sizes. They are at it again in this poll. The ComRes poll found that 63% of people agreed with the statement that "

By Anthony Wells 25 Feb 2009

ICM's monthly Guardian poll

ICM's monthly poll for the Guardian has voting intention figures, with changes from their last poll, of CON 42%(+2), LAB 30%(+2), LDEM 18%(-4). It was conducted between the 20th and 22nd of February. The raw changes from the last Guardian poll obviously suggest a sharp

By Anthony Wells 23 Feb 2009
Do the polls over-estimate Labour support?

Do the polls over-estimate Labour support?

Over at Political Betting Mike Smithson is taking John Rentoul to task for saying in his Sunday column that the polls could be overrepresenting Labour support by up to 5 points, and the Conservatives may only need a lead of 3 points to win. Mike is right to do so.

By Anthony Wells 23 Feb 2009

Can local by-elections predict general elections?

In the last few days a couple of people have asked about local government by-elections and whether we can tell anything about national levels of support from them, and I promised I would write a post about it. I have always been dubious in principle about whether local government by-elections

By Anthony Wells 19 Feb 2009

MORI give Conservatives a 20 point lead

Ipsos MORI's monthly political monitor has been released. The topline figures, with changes from their last poll, are CON 48%(+4), LAB 28%(-2), LDEM 17%(nc). It was conducted between the 13th and 15th February. We've seen the Conservatives re-establishing their lead over the past

By Anthony Wells 17 Feb 2009

Comment Policy

Comment Policy UK Polling Report has a policy of encouraging only NON-PARTISAN comments. The comments sections on most political blogs is either one sided, or dominated by petty political point scoring and tired rehersals of party political spin. I wanted something else. Therefore the rule in the comments section is

By Anthony Wells 15 Feb 2009

A contrasting picture from YouGov

The last three polls, from ICM, Populus and ComRes, have shown slight variation but have all been reporting the same trend: Labour collapsing further and the Liberal Democrats benefitting. The Sunday Times's YouGov poll however paints a far more static picture. The topline figures, with changes from YouGov&

By Anthony Wells 14 Feb 2009

Now ComRes shows a Lib Dem boost

I'm expecting two new polls tonight, ComRes in the Sunday Indy and possibly YouGov in the Sunday Times. ComRes is the first to arrive. The topline figures, with changes from ComRes's last poll, are CON 41%(-2), LAB 25% (-3), LDEM 22% (+6). The poll was

By Anthony Wells 14 Feb 2009
About those "others"...

About those "others"...

The Populus poll yesterday provoked rather a lot of comment on support for "others". They are up to 13% in this month's poll, from around about 9% last month. Most of the comments about it are pondering whether this is UKIP and the BNP (in fact,

By Anthony Wells 11 Feb 2009

Populus too show a (smaller!) Lib Dem boost

Populus's monthly poll for the Times has topline figures, with changes from last month, of CON 42%(-1), LAB 28%(-5), LDEM 18%(+3). The poll was conducted over the weekend. Populus's methodology is quite close to ICM's and we've got similar

By Anthony Wells 09 Feb 2009

Things you may have missed

While we are waiting for Populus tonight here's some bits and bobs from the last few days. Over the weekend there was a new System Three poll in Scotland showing voting intention in a possible referendum on Scottish Independence. The poll showed support for YES at 38%, for

By Anthony Wells 09 Feb 2009

Lib Dems up in latest ICM poll

There is a new ICM poll in the Sunday Telegraph which is - rather inexplicably - already up on their website here. The topline figures with changes from the last ICM poll are CON 40%(-4), LAB 28%(-4), LDEM 22%(+6). The poll was conducted on the 4th and

By Anthony Wells 07 Feb 2009
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