D minus 28 Tonight's polls: YouGov/Sun (7th-8th Apr) CON 40%(+3), LAB 31%(-1), LDEM 18%(-1) Just the one new GB poll today, with YouGov returning to similar figures to their polls earlier in the week. There was also a new Ipsos MORI poll of marginal
Tonight's YouGov poll has topline figures of CON 40%(+3), LAB 31%(-1), LDEM 18%(-1). It seems my warning yesterday about the amount of variation we should expect to see from normal sample variation was well timed (or tempted fate!). These figures are very similar to YouGov&
I am out tonight, so please use this thread to discuss any polls that appear. The only one I know of is YouGov's daily poll in the Sun, but there could be others. I will be back for my daily update before close of play.
Ipsos-MORI have published a second wave of their marginals polling for Reuters (for my report on wave 1 see here), which shows a swing of 5.5% from Labour to the Conservatives, up from 5% in the first wave in mid-March. This size swing is the equivalent of a lead
D minus 29 Tonight's polls: Angus Reid/Political Betting (6th Apr-7th Apr) CON 37%(-1), LAB 26%(-1), LDEM 22%(+2) YouGov/Sun (6th Apr-7th Apr) CON 37%(-3), LAB 32%(nc), LDEM 19%(+2) Populus/Times (6th Apr-7th Apr) CON 39%(-1), LAB 32%(+2), LDEM 21%
YouGov's daily poll in the Sun has topline figures of CON 37%(-3), LAB 32%(nc), LDEM 19%(+2). This means that both Angus Reid and YouGov are suggesting a boost to the Lib Dems from the first day of the campaign, though realistically these things could just
Populus's poll for the Times is out here. The topline figures are CON 39%(-1), LAB 32%(+2), LDEM 21%(+1). Changes are from way back in February, since Populus did a marginal poll instead in March. Populus found economic optimism continuing to rise, the net economic optimism
There is a new Angus Reid out on Political Betting. The topline figures with changes from their poll in the Sunday Express are CON 37%(-1), LAB 26%(-1), LDEM 22%(+2). The poll was conducted Tuesday and today, so is mostly "post-announcement". No significant change in itself.
D minus 30. Tonight's polls: YouGov/Sun (5th Apr-6th Apr) CON 40%(-1), LAB 32%(+1), LDEM 17%(-1) As far as I know the only new GB poll tonight is YouGov's daily poll in the Sun. I'm sure I heard something in the
Tonight's daily poll from YouGov has topline figures of: YouGov/Sun (5th Apr-6th Apr) CON 40%(-1), LAB 32%(+1), LDEM 17%(-1) According to the BBC newspaper review there may also be a poll of marginal seats in the Independent. I haven't seen anything else
YouGov's poll in the Sun today has topline figures of CON 41%, LAB 31%, LDEM 18%, so little change in the Conservative lead as we head towards the election. This poll has a significant methodological change, albeit one which has made hardly any difference to the topline figures.
So, with Gordon Brown expected to call the election tomorrow, tonight's should be the last polls before the formal campaign kicks off. It's unfortunate timing, given that bank holiday weekends (particularly long bank holiday weekends) have something of a reputation for producing strange samples. I'
Sign up to receive occasional updates from UK Polling Report.