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Cameron's Honeymoon

Cameron's Honeymoon

It's two months since the coalition government was formed, what is the public's opinion of it so far? Voting intention has followed a fairly straightforward pattern - the Lib Dem vote has fractured since the election, presumably largely due to losing the support of more left

By Anthony Wells 15 Jul 2010

ICM on why the polls overestimated the Lib Dems

Earlier in the week we also saw the publication of this article by Martin Boon and John Curtice, their take on why the polls overestimated the Lib Dems at the last election, based upon a call back survey of 1,200 of the respondents to their final survey. The first

By Anthony Wells 10 Jul 2010

YouGov/Spectator AV polling

A quick couple of posts to catch up with a couple of things I should have posted about during the week but didn't get round to. First, the Speccy this week has the results of a YouGov poll on voting intention in a general election fought under AV.

By Anthony Wells 10 Jul 2010

Latest YouGov voting intention

The latest YouGov voting intentions are now up here, and show CON 41%, LAB 36%, LDEM 15%, Others 9%. YouGov have been continuing daily polling since the election (and will continue doing so), but from this week have started putting out voting intention and government approval figures daily again. In

By Anthony Wells 07 Jul 2010

600 seats

I've written a lot about AV over recent days, what about the boundary review. Now we know the new target number of seats upon which the quota will be set (600), the tolerance that will be allowed either side of that quota (5%), and the exceptions that will

By Anthony Wells 05 Jul 2010

Could AV end up hurting Labour?

YouGov have some more AV polling, this time for Channel 4. In the past the assumption has been that AV would help Labour and the Liberal Democrats, and indeed this was backed up by polling evidence from past elections. In their final poll before the 2010 election YouGov asked respondents

By Anthony Wells 05 Jul 2010

Electoral Reform

To do with polling rather than opinion polling, but here's the meat from Nick Clegg's statement since most of it has provoked lots of comment here before now. On fixed term Parliaments. Parliament will have a 5 year fixed term. Votes of confidence will be given

By Anthony Wells 05 Jul 2010

More from YouGov's AV experiment

I've got the details of the YouGov polling now (they should be up on the website tomorrow morning). People were given 6 arguments for AV and 6 arguments against, and for each one asked if they thought it was an effective or ineffective argument. At the end they

By Anthony Wells 04 Jul 2010

More AV polling

There are no full polls in Sunday papers, but a couple of bits and bobs. The Sunday Times has a brief piece about a YouGov experiment on the AV referendum - rather than just asking straight voting intention in a referendum, they gave respondents 6 arguments in favour of AV,

By Anthony Wells 04 Jul 2010

Support for an AV referendum high... but vulnerable

Questions asking about support for referendums are tricky. Almost whatever you ask, people support referendums. I suppose it's not really surprising - asking if people support a referendum on X is pretty much the equivalent of asking "Should you get a say on X, or should politicians

By Anthony Wells 02 Jul 2010

The AV Referendum

It is reported that the AV referendum will be held next year, on the same day as the local, Scottish and Welsh elections. I am sure we will have lots of detailed polling on the issue in the days and weeks ahead, but for the record I've collected

By Anthony Wells 02 Jul 2010

AV Referendum

Alternative Vote AV Referendum Voting Intention - using current referendum question YouGov: (4) As you may know there will be a referendum on the 5th May. The referendum question reads as follows: “At present, the UK uses the "first past the post" system to elect MPs to the

By Anthony Wells 02 Jul 2010
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