Opposition to AV growing

Last night's YouGov figures are now up on the website here. The latest voting intentions are CON 42%, LAB 35%, LDEM 15%, suggesting the 9 point and 3 point leads we've had over the last week were both just random variation, and we are still in a holding position of a Tory lead of around about 7 points.

More interesting is YouGov's regular tracker on voting intention in the referendum on AV. Up until now it has shown a pretty consistent lead for AV of around about 10 points, in last night's figures referendum voting intention had narrowed to AV 39%, FPTP 38%.

Very, very early days of course and there is no reason to think polling this far out has any predictive power, but the initial lead that AV seemed to likely to start the campaign with appears to be fading (looking at the party cross breaks, AV no longer has a clear lead amongst Labour supporters, who now split 42% AV, 40% FPTP).