New poll of South-West England

Marketing Means have released results from a poll of the South-west of England, commissioned by the Western Morning News. Topline voting intention figures with changes from the general election are CON 42%(-1), LAB 28%(+13), LDEM 16%(-19), GRN 5%(+4). Compared to Marketing Means' last South West poll in March the Conservatives are up three, Labour down one and the Lib Dems down two.

The South West is normally a battleground between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, with Labour confined to urban areas like Bristol, Plymouth, Exeter and Swindon. There are very few Lib Dem held Labour targets. Hence despite the huge swing to Labour from the Lib Dems, if this was repeated at a general election the Conservatives would gain almost as many seats as Labour from the Lib Dem collapse (on a uniform swing the Conservatives would gain 12 Lib Dem seats, but lose 6 to Labour. Labour would gain 2 seats directly from the Lib Dems - the Lib Dems would be left with just two seats in the South-West, Bath and Yeovil. Naturally this ignores boundary changes).

UPDATE: Oh, and for methodology geeks, this is a rather unusual creature - a mixed mode poll, conducted both on telephone and online.