MORI show Lab & Con equal on 40%

Ipsos-MORI's monthly political monitor poll has been published here. Topline figures, with changes from last month, are CON 40%(+3), LAB 40%(-1), LDEM 9%(-1) - so putting Labour and the Conservatives neck-and-neck.

Needless to say, this is an unusual finding - the only other polls this year not to show a Labour lead were a couple of Opinium polls and the ICM poll straight after the budget. The ICM and YouGov polls conducted at the same time and subsequent to this one haven't shown any obvious narrowing of the Labour lead. I suspect it's down to weighting - Ipsos MORI do not do any political weighting of their sample (due to concerns about changes in levels of false recall and the fear it would weight out genuine volatility in public opinion) and the sample this month has significantly fewer respondents saying they voted Lib Dem in 2010... which given what has happened to the Lib Dem vote since then, one would expect to impact negative on the support recorded by Labour and the Lib Dems.

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