More from Sunday's polls

There were two Scottish polls this weekend - YouGov in the Scotland on Sunday had figures of CON 17%, LAB 37%, LD 22%, SNP 20%. TNS BMRB in the Scottish Mail on Sunday had figures of CON 13%, LAB 44%, LDEM 16%, SNP 23%. The YouGov poll would produce very little change in seats since 2005 - the Lib Dems would gain one seat from Labour, the SNP one. The TNS BMRB one would result in Labour gaining seats - one from the Conservatives and two from the Liberal Democrats.

The Sunday Times also had updated YouGov data from marginal seats, based on aggregated data from their daily polls. Annoyingly it didn't give actual voting intention figures, nor the size of the swing - it just says that it shows a greater swing to the Conservatives in Lab-v-Con marginals than elsewhere. According to the Sunday Times the swing equates to the Conservatives gaining about 70 seats, which implies swing of about 5.5%. In the past week, the average national swing in YouGov polls has been 4.5%, so it would indeed appear to be showing a larger swing to the Conservatives in these seats. However, YouGov are suggesting it will be cancelled out by the swing to the Lib Dem in LD-v-Con seats, where they suggest the Conservatives could loose 16 seats - implying a 4% swing from the Conservatives to Liberal Democrats. This is in contrast to ICM's marginal polling which showed no swing to the Lib Dems in Con-v-LD marginals.

The only poll I am expecting tonight is the daily YouGov/Sun poll - we haven't normally seen much else on Sunday nights, and I expect that will be even more the case on a bank holiday weekend. While I assume we'll still have the daily YouGov and ComRes polls early next week, I'd expect most pollsters to be looking toward their final polls on Wednesday now.