Latest Scottish polling

There are two Scottish polls out today. Firstly there was an ICM poll in the Scottish Sun - full VI figures were:

Holyrood constituency: CON 12%, LAB 39%, LDEM 10%, SNP 35% Holyrood regional: CON 13%, LAB 37%, LDEM 9%, SNP 34%

ICM have not polled in Scotland recently, so there are no changes from the last poll, but these figures show a relatively modest lead for Labour. Using the Weber Shandwick swingometer I make these equivalent to Labour getting 57 seats (up 11), SNP 45 seats (down 2), Conservatives 14 (down 3), Lib Dems 10 (down 6) and Greens 2 (nc).

The second is a new YouGov Scottish poll. Holyrood voting intention figures there were

Holyrood constituency: CON 10%(-5), LAB 41%(nc), LDEM 6%(-2), SNP 38%(+6) Holyrood regional: CON 11%(-4), LAB 39%(-1), LDEM 6%(-1), SNP 32%(+6), GRN 5%

YouGov have a big shift away from the Conservatives towards the SNP since their last poll, but their previous poll may have been something of an outlier. The broad pattern is similar to the ICM poll - the main difference being a significantly lower level of support for the Liberal Democrats, something we've come to expect from ICM and YouGov, who tend to show the highest and lowest levels of Liberal Democrat support respectively.

Using the Weber Shandwick swingometer again, these would translate into 61 seats for Labour, 47 seats for the SNP, 12 for the Conservatives, just 5 for the Liberal Democrats and 3 for the Greens.

On other matters, Opinium have sneaked out another batch of voting intention figures covering the last few months. Historical polling doesn't tell us much we don't already know, except about the house effects of Opinium - their figures seem to tend to show lower Labour leads than the average, and higher levels of support for "others".