Latest polls, and what might the impact of Syria be
Today's daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 37%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 12% (tabs here), the weekly Friday Populus poll meanwhile has figures of CON 33%, LAB 39%, LDEM 12%, UKIP 9% (tabs here). Needless to say, both polls were conducted before the government's defeat over Syria, so are already a bit out of date.
We'll know over the next few days what the impact of the Syria vote is on public opinion. Unlike many political events, it is at least something people notice (in the weekly Populus poll on what news stories people have noticed 61% said Syria), but it obviously isn't something that directly affects many British people's lives. Unless there are actual wars with widespread casualties, people tend to vote on things like the economy, health, taxes and so on, not on quarrels in a far away country between people of whom we know nothing. Perhaps of more interest will be the effect on perceptions of the party leaders (which, in turn, may have their own knock on effects on voting intention) - will it make people see David Cameron as a less effective leader, or Ed Miliband as a more effective one? I would be surprised if there wasn't at least some negative impact on Cameron's ratings, but whether that is long term or quickly forgotten is an open question...
