Kate Forbes Still Favoured by Voters - What do SNP Members Think?

Going by polling of the Scottish electorate alone, Kate Forbes would still be the frontrunner to be the next First Minister of Scotland. A new poll from Panelbase reinforces the previous picture, despite a plurality of respondents still saying they "don't know" who would be their preferred First Minister, on 49%, Kate Forbes leads the chasing pack.

Currently 23% of Scottish voters would want Forbes to be First Minister. This is 8% ahead of Hamza Yousaf, on 15%, whilst Ash Regan is sat on 7%.

In a detail that might concern Kate Forbes, this gap was far narrower amongst SNP voters. 20% of SNP voters would prefer Forbes as PM, with Yousaf on 18%.

Despite what the headline findings suggest, Kate Forbes' polling lead is hardly assured, at least for this leadership contest. Crucially, there is likely to be a distinction between the views of SNP voters and the SNP membership. Whilst Forbes is the favourite amongst the wider Scottish electorate - and less so amongst SNP voters - it's less likely she'd have such a lead amongst the membership.

What's more, even now a large portion of the Scottish electorate are unsure who would make the best First Minister. The fact almost half of Scots are still undecided suggests all candidates have room to gain as the campaign goes on. With the ballot not closing for another month, and an absence of SNP member polling, it's hard to say who will be Scotland's next First Minister with any confidence.