Ipsos MORI/Standard - CON 39, LAB 30, LD 9, UKIP 8, GRN 6
Ipsos MORI's monthly political monitor is out, their first since the election. Topline figures are CON 39%, LAB 30%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 8%, GRN 6%. As with other recent voting intention polls, the figures themselves are perhaps less interesting than the methodology changes. In the case of Ipsos MORI, they've made an adjustment to their turnout filter. In the past they used to take only those respondents who said they were 10/10 certain to vote, the tightest of all the companies' approaches. Their new approach is a little more complex, filtering people based on how likely they say they are to vote at an election and how regularly they say they usually vote - now they include only people who say their likelihood to vote is 9/10 or 10/10 AND who say they usually or always vote or "it depends". People who say they rarely, never or sometimes vote are excluded.
The impact of this doesn't appear to be massive. We can tell from the tables that the old method would have produced similar results of CON 39%, LAB 29%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 8%, GRN 6%. In their comments on their topline results MORI are very explicit that this is just an interim measure, and that they anticipate making further changes in the future as their internal inquiry and the BPC inquiry continue.
Looking at the other questions in the survey, MORI also asked about the Labour leadership election, and found results in line with other polling we've seen so far... a solid lead for don't know! Amongst the minority who expressed an opinion, Andy Burnham, led on 15%, followed by Yvette Cooper on 14%, Liz Kendall on 11%, Jeremy Corbyn on 5% and a dummy candidate ("Stewart Lewis") on 3%.