Ipsos MORI - 39/36/14

Ipsos MORI's monthly poll for Reuters is out, and has topline figures of CON 39%(+2), LAB 36%(-1), LDEM 14%(-1). Changes are from a month ago.

YouGov's voting intention this morning was CON 41%, LAB 39%, LDEM 12%. There will be the normal YouGov voting intention figures tonight, but unless anything pops up in the papers on Wednesday, those will be the last figures before the cuts announcements tomorrow and will form our benchmark for measuring any immediate impact on voting intentions.

Will there be any? It's hard to say. The cuts have been very well flagged in advance, but actual details may still come as a shock to voters - there may be an immediate drop in government support, or there may only be a delayed one when the cuts start actually to bite. Theoretically, as with the aftermath of the budget, it could even bolster the government if they are seen to be doing the responsible thing (there could be a combination of that, and then a later drop). We shall see...

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