ICM/Guardian - CON 34, LAB 39, LDEM 15

ICM's monthly poll for the Guardian has been published. Topline figures with changes from last month are CON 34%(nc), LAB 39%(nc), LDEM 15%(+1), Others 12%(-1). Changes are from ICM's last poll in July. Full tabs are here.

I am always a little wary of conducting polls over bank holiday weekends - there's always the worry that it might get a weird and wacky sample because of people travelling or going out. In this case though the poll looks very normal and very much in line with ICM's recent polling, showing no significant change from their last couple of polls.

ICM tend to show some of the smallest Labour leads of the main pollsters, partly because they re-allocate some of the voters who say don't know based on polling evidence from past elections that many of these voters are likely to end up voting for the party they voted for at the previous election. In this instance reallocation of don't knows closed the Labour gap from 9 points to 5 points, and increased reported Lib Dem support by 3 points.

The poll also asked who people would like to see lose their job in the forthcoming reshuffle - 48% of people said they think George Osborne should lose his job. As with other polls on Osborne, the answers to this are quite partisan, with a majority of Labour supporters saying Osborne should go. Even amongst Tory supporters though 29% think that Osborne should be replaced.