Final TNS Scottish poll shows 18 point lead for SNP

There is a new TNS-BMRB Scottish poll for STV, presumably their last of the campaign. Fieldwork was condicted between April 26th and May 2nd. Topline figures, with changes from the last Scottish Parliamentary election, are as below:

Holyrood constituency: CON 15%(-2), LAB 27%(-6), LDEM 10%(-7), SNP 45%(+11) Holyrood regional: CON 16%(+2), LAB 25%(-4), LDEM 9%(-2), SNP 38%(+7), Green 8%(+4)

By my reckoning, on a uniform swing this would give the SNP 60 seats, Labour 33, the Conservatives 18, Lib Dems 9 and Greens 8, with Margo MacDonald retaining her seat (STV's projections are almost the same, with the exception of Margo). Needless to say, this would be a fantastic result for the SNP and a disaster for Labour, but it's important to note that no other Scottish poll has shown Labour doing even nearly as badly as this.

Of course it may be that we get some more final call Scottish polling tomorrow that shows a similar picture, but until then I'd advise scepticism about a poll showing an outlandish result that was conducted over a double bank holiday weekend. The polls are certainly showing the SNP with a solid lead over Labour, but an 18 point lead? We'll see.

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