Constituency Poll Shows Labour On Course for Mid Bedfordshire Win

Opinium have conducted a constituency poll in Mid Bedfordshire ahead of the impending by-election, and it makes good reading for Labour. Their candidate, Alistair Strathern, is set to gain the seat on 28% of the vote, closely followed by the Conservative candidate Festus Akinbusoye on 24%. The Independent candidate Gareth Mackey, on 19%, also has a strong showing.

As with all constituency polls, and especially those conducted for by-elections, this should be taken with a handful of salt. There are further causes for scepticism based on some figures. Firstly, the sample size is relatively small. The poll is based on 724 responses, 39% of which either declined to give their voting intention or responded "don't know". Secondly, the vote shares of 19% for an independent and 10% for Reform seem somewhat dubious - especially considering the performance of Reform UK in recent by-elections relative to the polling. A Labour win despite the Conservatives' 24,664 majority would also make the result the largest by-election defeat in history. Though, to be fair, this was only a record set last year.

With all that in mind, and considering the small Labour margin of 4%, it's still all to play for in a by-election which doesn't even yet have a date set.