Conservative In-Fighting Boosts Labour's Poll Lead

The internal battles on the Conservative backbenches seem to have filtered through to opinion polling, as every poll result since Boris Johnson announced his resignation from parliament has shown Labour growing their poll lead. Estimates of Labour's Boris bounce range from Omnisis' 2% to the 8% suggested by More in Common and Deltapoll.

The more extreme results from the dataset are worth caveatting. Labour's gains according to More in Common's may be overstated as the change is registered on their last polling, conducted a month ago, whilst other pollsters releases have been more regular. Meanwhile, Deltapoll has had notoriously bouncy results, with their 8% change registered on a low result of 11%. Similarly, Omnisis has consistently placed Labour's lead at the higher end of the polling field, hence the smaller margin of a shift is not surprising.

Taking the broader picture, polling since June 9 now puts Labour's lead at around 18%, with an average 'Boris bounce' of 5%. The question that now remains is whether Labour's progress will be sustained. With four by-elections on the cards, the timing is hardly ideal for CCHQ...