BBC Projected National Share

I'm having a nice rest after the election, but a brief update to add the BBC's projected national vote - CON 29%, LAB 31%, LD 13%, UKIP 17%.

So in relation to my previous comments on the local results, Labour's lead is indeed only modest, very much in line with their position in the national polls. And rather than UKIP doing pretty much the same as they did in last year's local elections, they've actually done significantly worse - 17% as opposed to the 23% they got last year.

I should also comment on what the Projected National Share is. It's not a sum of actual votes cast, it's a projection of what the results would be if the whole country was voting and the main *three* parties were contesting all seats (it doesn't assume a UKIP candidate in every seat, though the process of taking only seats where Lab, Con and LD stood means that it does increase the effective level of UKIP contestation). As regular readers will know, there is a cycle of local elections and in some years the councils voting are more Toryish or more Labourish - so for example, last year's locals were mostly in shire councils, this year's elections were mostly in metropolitan councils. The PNS attempts to smooth out those differences so you can compare one election to the next - so even if there are some teething problems in accounting for a new party in the PNS, the year to year comparisons should be valid.