All to Play for in Mid Bedfordshire By-Election

With Nadine Dorries finally finding the time to send off her resignation letter, we will soon have a date for the Mid Bedfordshire By-Election that's been months in the making. Despite all this time, the outcome is not looking any more assured.

Going by recent by-election results, you might expect the Conservatives to lose. Applying a similar swing to those from Selby, Somerton and Frome, and the less recent example of Tiverton and Honiton would all see the Conservatives lose the seat. However, the surprise Conservative win in Uxbridge does provide one counter-example, and the uniform national swing model suggests an opposition gain is by no means a forgone conclusion.

The situation is further complicated by the fact there is no clear Conservative challenger. Labour was, by a solid margin, the nearest rival at the last general election, securing 21.7% to the Liberal Democrats on 12.6%. Going by constituency polling, they look to be on course to make the most of this, with an (isolated) Opinium poll showing a Labour gain on a 4% majority with 28% of the vote - the Lib Dems trailed on 15% with a strong independent challenger, Gareth Mackey, on 19%. As with all constituency polling, this should not be taken as gospel.

Likewise, it's easy to make the case for the Liberal Democrats to step up to the mantle. Like Labour, the party machinery is gearing up as they showed their capacity to attract strong swings in Tory heartlands in the recent Somerton and Frome by-election. Going by the betting markets, they are also the favourites to win the seat. The Lib Dems would also point to recent local election results and polling which shows they are best placed to win tactical votes as further evidence of their capacity to challenge.

All in all, the race to succeed Nadine Dorries is currently quite open. Although an opposition gain would be most likely, the Conservatives shouldn't be written off in a seat with a 38% majority that they've held since 1929. Once again, the result may well be decided by how well opposition parties can co-ordinate - a challenge which may be helped by the prospect of simultaneous by-elections in the Labour-threatened seats of Tamworth and Rutherglen and Hamilton West...