A Tale of Two Cities: ULEZ Expansion Divides Londoners by Location
After much debate, Sadiq Khan's flagship ULEZ expansion finally came into effect yesterday, and Londoners are divided on their response to the policy. In the city as a whole, the policy does experience net positive support - of +5 points. This, however, is short of a majority, with 42% in opposition. Dividing the city based on centrality perhaps tells a more revealing story. In inner London, where the ULEZ has already been rolled out, voters are overwhelmingly supportive. 62% support the policy with just 26% opposed it. The same isn't true of outer London.
A majority of suburban voters, some 51%, oppose ULEZ expansion, with 38% supportive of the move. This can provide some useful insight into the Conservatives' successful ULEZ-based campaign to hold onto suburban Uxbridge and South Ruislip.
There are a number of patterns which could explain this trend. Firstly, and most simply, those in outer London are more directly affected by the policy; they may therefore be more reluctant to offer their support to this new additional charge. However, the effect could also be explained by the relative political preferences of inner and outer London. Outer London has a higher relative share of Conservative voters, as one look at the map of 2019 election results in the capital would tell you, and so they might be more opposed to the ULEZ expansion instinctively or have pre-existing unfavourability towards the London Mayor. The inverse could be said of voters in inner London.
Although Londoners were split over support for ULEZ expansion as a whole, there were some broad points of agreement. Voters in both inner and outer London opposed vandalism of ULEZ infrastructure, whilst a majority agreed Sadiq Khan should be doing more to help those with non-compliant vehicles. And despite all the fuss, transport only barely made the top five concerns of Londoners ahead of next year's election, with clean air coming seventh. The top three issues, according to London voters, are: the cost of living, crime and housing. That should give Susan Hall something to build on...
