One of the most important things in understanding public opinion on politics is quite how little attention most people pay to it. I constantly see comments in here asking what effect a news event will have on voting intention. Most of the time the answer is none. This is should
The US elections are over, so back to domestic concerns. The weekly TNS BMRB voting intention poll is out and shows very little movement from last week, topline figures are CON 31%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 8%. Meanwhile the daily YouGov poll for the Sun this morning had topline
Tonight, you should hardly need telling, is US election night, so here's a thread for overnight discussion and some things to look out for tonight. First up a note about exit polls. Exit polls this year are only being conducted in 31 states rather than 50, they aren&
Media commentators seem to have caught up with the fact that UKIP are challenging for third place in the polls... except that it isn't quite a fact. As ever, the actual picture is more complicated and whether UKIP are competing for third place, or have secured third place,
This week's YouGov poll for the Sunday Times is up on the YouGov website here. Topline figures are CON 35%, LAB 42%, LD 9%, UKIP 7%, at the lower end of the normal YouGov range but probably just normal margin of error. The regular approval ratings for the
The fortnightly Opinium poll for the Observer is out here. Topline figures are CON 30%, LAB 41%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 10%. The figures are pretty typical by the standards of Opinium's recent polling, with a Labour lead of around ten points and UKIP in third place (Survation and
I haven't written anything about the US elections yet this cycle. This is for two reasons, first because there are vast amounts of US polling to get on top of in order to say anything sensible, secondly because there are already some very good US polling sites that
Or perhaps more accurately, a round up of polling bits and bobs that I've missed over the last week or two! The BBC There has been various polling on the BBC and the Jimmy Savile affair, most of it generally damning. Of particular note though is this poll
TNS BMRB's weekly poll is out this morning with topline figures of CON 31%(+1), LAB 42%(-2), LDEM 11%(+3), UKIP 8%(+1), Others 8%. Changes are from last week and don't show any significant movement. Meanwhile this morning's YouGov poll for the
ComRes's monthly telephone poll for the Independent is out tonight and has topline figures of CON 33%(-2), LAB 44%(+6), LDEM 12%(-3). Changes are from ComRes's previous telephone poll, which was conducted straight after the Liberal Democrat conference and, as you may remember, showed
The weekly YouGov results for the Sunday Times are now online here, mostly covering the BBC and Jimmy Savile, topics which I'll leave to another day. Topline voting intention results are CON 35%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 7%. The seven point Labour lead is lower than YouGov
Ipsos MORI's monthly political monitor has now been published. Topline figures with changes from their last poll in mid-September, before conference season, are CON 33%(+3), LAB 43%(+2), LDEM 9%(-4), UKIP 6%. The Labour lead remains pretty steady at around ten points, again roughly the same
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