Yesterday we had two by-elections. Claction was an emphatic, walkover win for Douglas Carswell and UKIP, which was largely what everyone expected - he was particularly well regarded as an MP and the demographics of the seat could not have been better for UKIP. Heywood and Middleton was more of
This morning's YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAN 34%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6% (tabs here). Yesterday's YouGov poll was also back to a small Labour lead, so it looks as if the Tory lead immediately following Cameron'
Populus and Lord Ashcroft have both published new polls today. Lord Ashcroft's poll echoes YouGov's post conference polls in showing a small Tory lead - CON 32%, LAB 30%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 17%, GRN 7% (tabs here). In contrast today's Populus poll still shows
Two polls in the Sunday papers. The weekly YouGov/Sunday Times poll has topline figures of CON 36%, LAB 34%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 13%. That means both the YouGov polls since Cameron's conference speech have shown a small Tory lead, though it's worth noting that that
The Sun has two interesting polls tonight. Firstly the daily YouGov poll tonight has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 34%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 14%. The fieldwork was conducted between Wednesday afternoon and Thursday afternoon, so was entirely after David Cameron speech, but largely before this morning's newspaper
Having made my way back from conference I've finally had a chance to look properly at Lord Ashcroft's latest batch of marginal seat polling, this time looking mostly at Liberal Democrat seats - both the LD-v-Con battleground and the LD-v-Lab battleground. Full details are here. Eleven
I'm about to head up to Birmingham, so won't necessarily be around much for the next few days (not least, when Lord Ashcroft releases his latest marginal poll at 2pm today I'll be on a train!), but here's a quick summary of
As part of his speech today Nigel Farage showed off polling for various target seats. A couple of the polls were just the figures from previous Ashcroft polls that showed UKIP doing well, but three are Survation polls for UKIP that we haven't seen before. They show UKIP
BBC Wales had a new ICM poll of Wales out this morning, conducted in the aftermath of the Scottish referendum. Westminister voting intentions in Wales, with changes from the previous ICM Welsh poll in February, are CON 23%(-1), LAB 38%(-4), LDEM 7%(-2), Plaid 13%(-1), UKIP 14%
We have our usual three Monday polls today: The weekly Lord Ashcroft poll has topline figures of CON 27%(-6), CON 33%(nc), LDEM 9%(nc), UKIP 17%(+3), GRN 6%(nc). The drop in Conservative support looks striking, but is probably largely a reversion to the mean after the
The weekly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times is up here and has topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 36%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 16%, GRN 5%. There are some questions on the political leaders (particularly Ed Miliband in advance of this week's Labour conference), but they show the
As I write there is still one council to declare, but the maths mean that the overall result is going to be Yes 45%, No 55%. So, how did the polls do? The final pre-election polls had all tightly converged around the same figures - Yes 48%, No 52%, with
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